Satellite Petrochemical (002648) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Net Profit Increases 94% to Create a New Growth Point for By-Product Hydrogen
The event company released the 2019 first quarter report, and the company achieved operating income of 21 in 2019Q1.
10,000 yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.
2%, to achieve net profit attributable to mother 2.
20 ppm, a 94-year increase of 94.
At the same time, the company released the 2019 semi-annual performance forecast, and it is expected that H1 will achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 2019.
10,000 yuan, an increase of 65 in ten years.
Brief comment on the expansion of acrylic acid and ester spreads, doubled earnings in the first quarter: The average acrylic acid and ester prices and spreads in the first quarter of 2019 meanwhile, the company’s profitability has greatly improved.
The price difference of acrylic acid in Q1 2019 was 3129 yuan / ton, and the price difference of Q1 in 2018 was 2088 yuan / ton, an increase of 49.
9%, the cement price in the first quarter was 8410 yuan / ton, an increase of 8 per year.
32%; The price difference of butyl acrylate in the first quarter of 19 was 851 yuan / ton, which increased by 59 in one year (535 yuan / ton in the first quarter of 2018).
1%, 708 yuan / ton from the fourth quarter of 18, an increase of 20 from the previous quarter.
2%, the price of butyl acrylate in Q1 19 was 9,954 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.
The explosions in northern Jiangsu and Taixing affected more than 100 domestic carbide production, of which 78 radiation in Taixing area (22% of the country’s total production capacity), Xiangshui Jurong 20 replaced (the production has been suspended before the explosion), and Miki 30 distance (deposit along the Yangtze River)Shutdown risk), the subsequent more stringent safety inspections and environmental protection policies may affect the load on acrylic acid and ester devices, driving the supply side tighter, and the expectations of rising prices of acrylic acid and esters are strong, which will further boost the company’s performance.
In addition, after the first phase of PDH Phase 45 project 45 was injected into production capacity, it brought stable growth points to the company’s performance.
The following 18 years are forecasted. The first phase of acrylic acid per year (supporting 30 seconds per year of 厦门夜网 butyl ester), 15 cases per year of second phase polypropylene, and 6 cases per year of SAP projects are put into operation. The C3 industry chain of the company will be continuously improved and reached in 2019.Doubled production capacity and achieved stable profitability across the industry chain.
Layout of hydrogen energy sector, cost advantages increase the profit of the industrial chain: While deepening the C2 and C3 industrial chain, the company set up satellite hydrogen with its own funds, turning lightweight by-product high-purity carbon dioxide into waste, replacing the previous direct discharge.The use of air or fuel can fully utilize the added value of the company’s surplus wind turbines and bring rich profits to the company. The company is located in the Yangtze River Delta Economic Belt and close to the hydrogen 北京桑拿洗浴保健 energy consumption market. Compared to coal-based hydrogen, mainstream chlor-alkaliThe geographical advantages of hydrogen production enterprises are significant.
At present, the company’s 90 condenser PDH unit produces by-product air in addition to the fluorine supporting 22 capillary hydrogen peroxide device, and the surplus gas phase 3.
0 minimum exchange rate. After the completion of the construction of the additional comprehensive utilization project, the surplus cylinder will be about 25 seconds / year, which can contribute to the domestic hydrogen energy development and utilization, and can replace the hydrogen source to become the leader of domestic surplus hydrogen source supply and build a future companyNew growth points in performance.
The preliminary separation and preparation of ethylene projects has been progressing steadily, and the C2 industry is about to spread its wings. In March 2018, the large-scale purchase agreement was completed and the United States Export Facilities Joint Agreement was officially signed to ensure the supply of project raw materials.
At present, the Lianyungang petrochemical project is advancing in an orderly manner, and sufficient preliminary preparations have been made to select mid-end polyethylene for development, which is in line with development requirements.
Supporting supplementary storage tanks and terminals, the United States ORBIT project is progressing as planned and is planned to be completed in the third quarter of 2020.
On March 7, 2019, Satellite Petrochemical signed the signing ceremony of three 98,000 cubic meters VLEC shipbuilding contracts at Jiaxing Antiques and Hyundai Heavy Industries in Zhejiang Province. In the future, it will invest a total of 5 billion to build 6 VLEC carriers and deliver them by the end of 2020.
The first phase of the satellite petrochemical Lianyungang project produced 125 samples of ethylene (250 tons in two phases), which is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2020.
Assuming that the short-term US price is US $ 320 / ton in 2021 and the domestic ethylene price is US $ 1300 / ton, according to our model calculations, the profit from the decomposition and preparation of the ethylene project is 2015 yuan / ton, and the net profit of US $ 25 million after the first phase of productionConsider the follow-up polyethylene and glucose intensive processing alternative profits will scale.
Profit forecast and estimation: The company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 14 respectively.
2.8 billion, 18.
59 ppm and 30.
0.7 million yuan, EPS1.
34 yuan, 1.
74 yuan and 2.
81 yuan, PE15.
0X and 7.
4x, maintain “Buy” rating.